Commentary

Formal kinetics of H1N1 epidemic

Konstantin G Gurevich

UNESCO Chair in Healthy Life for Sustainable Development, Moscow State University of Medicine and Dentistry (MSDMU), Delegatskaya Street 20/1, 127473, Moscow, Russia

author email corresponding author email

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2009, 6:23doi:10.1186/1742-4682-6-23

Published:	15 September 2009

Abstract

Background

The formal kinetics of the H1N1 epidemic seems to take the form of an exponential curve. There is a good correlation between this theoretical model and epidemiological data on the number of H1N1-infected people. But this formal model leads to paradoxes about the dates when everyone becomes infected: in Mexico this will happen after one year, then in the rest of the world.

Further implications of the formal model

The general limitations of this formal kinetics model are discussed. More detailed modeling is examined and the implications are examined in the light of currently available data. The evidence indicates that not more than 10% of the population is initially resistant to the H1N1 virus.

Conclusion

We are probably only at the initial stage of development of the H1N1 epidemic. Increasing the number of H1N1-resistant people in future (e.g. due to vaccination) may influence the dynamics of epidemic development. At present, the development of the epidemic depends only on the number of people in the population who are initially resistant to the virus.